The current Nashville upzoning and Missing Middle issue in simple terms – with data and context

Article by Christopher Remke, AIA (ret) • 8 minute read

Nashville’s leadership is treating zoning reform (converting low-density neighborhoods to medium/high density) like the latest fashion trend - everyone must adopt it, no matter how ill-fitting the policy or how obviously its seams - our stressed infrastructure - are starting to split.

Our elected leaders are flying at warp speed toward a future defined by density, fueled by a persistent, almost religious belief that we are in a “housing emergency” and that simply building more will make things abundant, cheaper, and magically fix our deficient and in many cases crumbling infrastructure. Yet, they can’t seem to conduct a legitimate infrastructure study or build a new sewer or a sidewalk. Is the addiction to development the answer?

This entire push is based on the city’s “Housing & Infrastructure” (H&I) Study. But before we tear down the city based on the H&I blueprint, it’s time we compare their forecasts to reality.

We must tread carefully, because the facts on the ground in 2025 paint a vastly different picture than the “emergency” being sold to both elected officials and the public:

Missing 95,000 People: The city’s aggressive forecast claimed 175,000 new residents by 2034. Credible state data (Boyd Center) says it’s closer to 80,000 (new data since previous posts). That’s a 95,000-person error underpinning the entire strategy.

The Manufactured Emergency: The claim that we “urgently” need to upzone to accommodate 91,000 new homes is based on that inflated population count. This is a strange statement given the study value of a 70K zoning capacity, plus the recently adopted zoning for adaptive re-use of 65K, which equals 135,000 units in the current accounting. The realistic need is closer to 39,000 using their own conversion formula. 20,000 of which require subsidies; therefore, they should not be members of the market-rate solution. The “emergency” is exaggerated by 52,000 units.

Counting all units regardless of the delivery method, if 135,000 / 39,000 = 3.46 or 356% of the current “ten-year need,” based upon the State of Tennessee Projection. HUD’s projection would be lower.

Or, if we look at the HUD regional Nashville HMA projection (the 14-county region) Davidson County, without any zoning changes, can hold the full HMA housing needs for the next eight years, while the other 13 counties go on a housebuilding vacation.

The Market is Saturated: We currently have the highest housing inventory (homes for sale) in 20 years. Apartment vacancies are at 12%, also a 20-year high. Owner-occupied homes are also at record vacancies. The supply crisis is a myth. The residential real-estate market is out of balance/dysfunctional, but we apparently have no time to evaluate why - why not? No idea.
The Stalled Engine: Job growth, the supposed engine of this boom, plummeted to just 0.1% last year in Davidson County. We now have more market-rate buyers moving out than in, and record-high vacancies.
The Pace Needed for UHS Target: To hit the 175,000-resident goal, the county would need to add roughly 17,500 jobs per year.
The Actual Pace (2020-2024): After accounting for the pandemic downturn and recovery, Davidson County’s net job growth has averaged 2,049 jobs per year.

The proposed justification and the solutions we are asked to use are demonstrably false, but how could they be wrong? The answer, political theatre, and aging data are part of the fashion show.

The 50-pizza problem

The foundation of the entire density push is the "91,000-home emergency," based on population projections that are proven to be wildly inflated - by nearly double.

It’s like ordering 50 pizzas because you thought an SEC football tailgate party was happening, but only a Pop Warner team showed up. And now, staring at the stack of uneaten pizzas and uneaten boxes, the administration’s solution is to demand we build a bigger kitchen.

The great bait-and-switch

Perhaps the most cynical aspect of the H&I report is the great mismatch between the problem and the solution. The report spends a lot of ink detailing the genuine affordability crisis facing Nashville’s working families, service workers, and those on fixed incomes. It pulls at the heartstrings. It leaves an impression that solving that problem is included.

And then our elected leadership and their planning companions offer their solution: a massive supply-side stimulus for developers, branded as the “Missing Middle,” claiming it will deliver affordability justified by a developer-friendly “cost-plus” logic.

But here’s the kicker: the report itself admits this new housing won’t help the people genuinely in crisis. It’s designed to serve high-earning professionals and the high-end markets.

It’s like diagnosing a patient with a broken leg and prescribing them a luxury facelift. The action is visible, expensive, and completely unrelated to the actual problem.

The "outlier" red flag

The mismatch gets worse when you compare the city’s projections to federal data. A 2024 HUD analysis of the entire Nashville economic engine, a 14-county region (HMA), exposes just how bizarre Nashville’s assumptions are.

Nashville Planning’s goal to provide for 91,000 units, a 10-year demand for Davidson County - home to 34 percent of the 14-county region’s population – is to absorb 57 percent of the entire region’s Federal Government (HUD) projected housing need. “To put that plainly: We are expected to build most of the region’s housing, even though we are only a third of the population.

And this demand is being forced onto a market that HUD explicitly states is already “overbuilt,” noting that the existing “oversupply is already concentrated in Davidson County”. This does beg the question: are our housing dysfunctions from a lack of supply, or are we sitting on the next bubble?

The "pepperoni jackpot" illusion – the cost-plus fallacy

Why does the city cling to this flawed data? Because it supports a fundamental misunderstanding - or perhaps a willful ignorance of how real estate works.

Policymakers are operating on the "Cost-Plus Fallacy." They assume that if we let a developer build four or eighteen units (plus), instead of one, a for-profit market-rate developer will pass those sweet “scale” savings on to you.

This is charmingly naive. For-profit developers use a market-rate model. They charge the absolute maximum the market will bear; if they did not, investors would accuse them of mismanagement.

When a government upzones a lot (a parcel), it instantly manufactures massive financial value. This is the "windfall gain." That value isn't your discount; it’s the developer's new and expanded profit capacity. The pizza kitchen hits the Pepperoni Jackpot... and still charges full price.

Why fly headlong into the storm?

So why pursue a policy built on phantom population growth and demonstrably false market conditions?

The Growth Machine: Upzoning is steroids for land value. It directly benefits the “Growth Machine”- the coalition of developers, landowners, and financial interests that heavily influence local and national politics. These entities with cash in hand to buy your neighborhood, especially the starter home neighborhoods, according to recent market analysis.
The Fashion Trend: “Missing Middle” is the dominant national urban planning trend. It’s easier to follow the trend and look “innovative” than to tailor a solution that actually fits Nashville’s specific needs.
A Tax Generator? “Nashville’s Missing Middle Density Dividend”?

Nashville is currently in a slow-growth mode. Zoning “innovation” IS NOT an emergency that requires immediate, drastic, and irreversible action; it’s an opportunity to align critical priorities and manage risk.

Nashville’s ultimate charge should be to protect the vulnerable and demand solutions from planners and consultants that aren’t obsessed with a one-size-fits-all supply-side "fix."

So what should we do?

We must identify local issues: What are the true affordability needs? How do we address the 94% who wish they could own? How do we protect the vulnerable, those on fixed incomes, and the existing starter home inventory? Have we learned lessons from communities like Austin, TX, another overbuilt collapsing upzoning effort?

And what about infrastructure? We're told that stressing our already-broken systems more will magically fix them. It's absurd when we know where to build.

Risk management demands that we do not exacerbate an oversupply problem with policies designed for a boom that ended years ago. It would tell you to focus on the problem, not the theater. We have the data. We ALL KNOW that market-rate solutions yield market-rate outcomes.

Let's demand policies that address the actual needs of our residents, rather than policies that maximize developer profits and the hope of “build it and they will come,” all based on manufacturing crisis for the theater.

Take a beat, pump the brakes

Observation: When working as a student on the Chattanooga redevelopment plan, after months of study I reached my conclusion, it was disheartening, my highly regarded professor looked at me and said, sometimes the most beneficial thing you learn while still on the drawing board is what not to do.

There is no reason to hurry to stimulate property taxes and displacement in today’s underperforming real estate and job growth market.

On November 2, 2025, the Metro Council Planning and Zonning Committee will review amendments to the initial bill. Watch for a follow-up for recommended actions. We are hopeful that additional guidance for a policy specific focus will emerge.

Watch for more notices and sign up for their updates if you have not already.